New Orleans, LA: Do you think there is a chance the Phillies will win the NL East?

Joe Morgan: Yes there is a chance, they are only a couple games behind. They are playing well now and the real problem for the Mets is if they end up in a tie, the Phillies win. Right now the lead says they are 1.5 ahead, but in my opinion they are only a .5 game ahead. If the Mets tie, they lose.

And then, a little while later…

Josh W NY, NY: Who is going to win the NL West - Arizona or San Diego?

Joe Morgan: Well I do not have a crystal ball. but the Dbacks have hung tough this long, so I will give them the nod. But anything can happen in the next 10-12 ball games. I have to say Arizona, with the Padres winning the Wild Card. But even if the Padres catch them Arizona could still win the Wild Card. So I think both team will be in the playoffs.

So the wildcard will come out of the NL West. Which means only one team in the NL East will make the playoffs. Which means that if the Mets and Phillies end up tied, the Mets do NOT lose the tiebreaker. The tiebreaker only applies if two teams end up tied for first in the division AND tied for first in the wildcard, meaning that both teams are going to the playoffs regardless. Then they look at the tiebreaker. So the only way the Mets’ 1.5-game lead is really only a half-game like Joe Morgan says is if both the Mets and Phillies make the playoffs. But we know they won’t, because he just told us both the Padres and Diamondbacks will make the playoffs.

Everyone knows predictions are often wrong; only Joe Morgan makes predictions in such a way that it is literally impossible for them to be correct.

Today’s topic comes from Morgan’s chat on ESPN.com from Tuesday, August 7, 2007, which includes this exchange:

Rick SD: Do you think there is often too much weight and kudos given to individual stat data accomplishments in what is supposed to be a team sport?

Joe Morgan: Finally somebody that understands the game. You’re right. Statistics are overrated. What you do to help your team win is what it’s all about. These stats like OPS, it doesn’t tell you what you do for the team. To my opinion, to help the team, you drive in runs or score runs. That helps the team. That’s how you should be judged.

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NOTE: I started writing this several weeks ago, and while I have tried to update all the references to time, I may have missed one or two. So if something doesn’t flow right, that’s why.

In mid-June on Sunday Night Baseball, Joe Morgan said the following (paraphrased):

You know I think wins are the most important stat to judge a pitcher by. There’s a big difference between pitching just well enough to win and pitching just bad enough to lose.

Then in his June 26th chat on ESPN.com, he had these two gems:

Bob (Brooklyn): What’s more important to evaluate a pitcher: Wins or ERA?

Joe Morgan: I’ve always believed that an ERA is like a batting average. It’s a personal thing. For instance, a guy could hit .300, but not be as valuable as a guy that hits .270. A guy that makes 7 outs out of 10 with guys on base, he’s not that valuable. But if you’re clutch, but hit .275, you’re more valuable. That’s why I think wins are better. It’s just as tough to win a game 7-6 as it is 1-0. The only thing that matters at the end of the year is how many games did we win.

Kyle (Kansas): What is the most overated stat in baseball?

Joe Morgan: Batting average and earned run average and this OPS stuff they do. OPS doesn’t tell you anything except about the individual. The same as the other stats. It doesn’t tell you anything about the team. A .300 average doesn’t help you win games, run production does.

Joe Morgan: I’m not saying those numbers don’t mean anything, I’m saying they’re overglorified.

I knew there were people out there who actually believed these things (based on the results of postseason awards voting), but it still surprises me to actually see someone put it that way. I want to address a couple things:
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I often rip on Joe Morgan for being an idiot, because he often is. In reading the transcript of his chat from yesterday, though, I have to give credit to him for making at least one intelligent observation.

Joey, FL: Joe…SOMEONE has gotta ask about A-Rod. Bold prediction for his future? Seems unlikely he’ll leave NY, right?

Joe Morgan: I think he stays in New York, because if he goes anywhere else, it will look like he’s quitting. I think he’ll stay in New York, and he’ll have a good year. Everyone forgets that he was the MVP last year. Every player, no matter how great, has an off year. I don’t even think his year was that off.

I never thought I’d say this, but … wait for it … wait for it …

Joe Morgan just took the words right out of my mouth.

There, I said it. I feel dirty, but I stand by it. I’m gonna go take a shower now.

Last week, I talked about a few things that Steve Phillips could have done better in his chat on ESPN.com. But let’s face it, my bread and butter is talking about how stupid Joe Morgan is. And I happen to have two weeks of chats to support my opinions. Let’s do this.
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I generally read all the baseball-related chats on ESPN.com (except the Fantasy Baseball ones). I don’t usually participate while they are going on, what with having a job and all, but I always read them, and I often find myself wishing I were the one doing the answering. It’s not that I think I know everything; I just think I know more than Joe Morgan and Steve Phillips.

I often have issues with these chats, generally when the chatter agrees with (or doesn’t vociferously disagree with) a stupid question. Other times, the questions are fine and it’s just the chatter who is stupid. In reading today’s chat with Steve Phillips, I came across a couple question/answer combos that merited my attention.
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Sometimes I think Joe Morgan only does his ESPN.com chats to give me material. Anyway, a couple points from today’s chat:
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It’s no secret that while I respect Joe Morgan’s abilities as a Hall of Fame second baseman, I find his analytical skills as color commentator for ESPN’s baseball broadcasts a bit lacking, to put it mildly. When I see him lined up for a chat on ESPN.com, I generally check it out — mostly for the sake of humor. I was a bit surprised to see this question and answer yesterday:

Tim D (Chicago): Why is everyone so hung up on on-base percentage? I think doing the little things and playing hard is more important. What do you think Joe?

Joe Morgan: Very good question. OBP is very important, BUT it is important for certain players and not so much for others. Mark McGwire couldn’t do a lot of things on the bases and hit a lot of HRs. It’s not as important as someone like Posednik who can do things when he is on base. People have fallen in love with OBP to prove the worth of players but it is more important for some players than others.

Remember, OBP, if it is not tied to run production, is not a big deal. Run production is how you should judge a player. Certain players at the top of the order should have high OBP because that is their job, to get on base. Guys in the middle of the lineup should be driving in those runs.

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Three things about myself that never cease to amaze me: how cute I was as a kid, how small my size 13 feet look compared to the rest of my body, and the lengths I will go to to prove Joe Morgan wrong. Today’s lesson in The Idiocy of Joe Morgan 101 is entitled, “Things Joe Morgan says because he is an ‘expert’ and he is pretty sure no one will take the time to check his facts.”
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